Here's Your First 2016 Electoral Map

From the University of Virginia's Center For Politics:

We had some differences of opinion about the Leans Democratic states in the Midwest and the Northeast, as well as a handful of states that typically go Republican. For instance, we considered starting Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as Toss-ups to reflect how close they could be in a tight national election. However, given that both states have voted Democratic even in years when the Democratic nominee has lost (2000 and 2004), and because neither state has shown a clear pro-Republican trend in recent presidential elections, we could not justify portraying either state as a coin-flip to start.

We also debated what to do with Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri, states that have consistently voted Republican presidentially since 2000 yet have yielded very close results (Missouri) or have demographic trends favoring the Democrats (Arizona and Georgia). They are certainly not Safe R — or not the way they used to be, at least in the case of the latter two — but if the GOP nominee is losing any of them, he is almost certainly on his way to a large national loss. Therefore, Likely R is the logical place for them. Indiana was easier. Barack Obama’s 2008 win was something of a fluke; it was only the second time since the end of the World War II that the state voted Democratic, and Mitt Romney strongly restored it to the GOP column in 2012. So we’ve started it as Safe R.

There's a ton of historical data at the link.

Tea Party Leader: Romney Can Still Win

"Mitt Romney carried 24 states. We need to have conservative activists from all over the nation contact the electors, the Republican Party and the secretary of state in all of these states and tell them not to participate in the Electoral College when it meets on Dec. 17.  If we can get 17 of those states (just over one-third) to refuse to participate, the Electoral College will have no quorum. Then, as the Constitution directs, the election goes to the House of Representatives. That is how we can still pull this election out and make Mitt Romney president in January. We need this concept shared with every tea party, liberty and patriotic group throughout the country. We have time to act, but we must pressure Republicans to do the right thing. It does not matter who gets credit for this. The credit is not important. Using our last chance to defeat Barack Obama is important." - Tea Party Nation founder Judson Phillips, telling World Net Daily how Romney can still win.

RELATED: This summer Phillips said that President Obama should prove he isn't a gay crackhead before making tax return demands on Romney.

If Only White Men Had Voted

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Nate Silver's Map Vs The Result

Silver's prediction is on top.

Final Nate Silver Forecast

This time I used Silver's "now-cast." This is as "now" as it gets.

The "Unskewed" Electoral Map

Above is a final look at what the folks in Teabagistan are betting on.

Nate Silver's Electoral Update

I've been posting these every Friday for almost a year. Raise your hand if Nate Silver has kept you sane these last couple of months.

Electoral College Update

From Electoral-Vote.com

Embiggen for details or go here.

Nate Silver's Electoral Update

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Nate Silver's Electoral Update

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Romney Surges In Electoral Forecast

I usually post Nate Silver's electoral college forecasts on Fridays, but today he notes a surge for Mitt Romney.

Mitt Romney gained further ground in the FiveThirtyEight forecast on Monday, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing to 25.2 percent from 21.6 percent on Sunday. The change represents a continuation of the recent trend: Mr. Romney’s chances were down to just 13.9 percent immediately in advance of last week’s debate in Denver. He has nearly doubled his chances since then.

Nate Silver's Electoral Update

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Nate Silver's Electoral Update

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Nate Silver's Electoral Update

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Nate Silver's Electoral Update

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Politico Looks At The Swing States

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Nate Silver On The DNC Bounce

Elections prognosticator Nate Silver takes a look at the candidates' post-convention bounces.

The most impressive thing that our model did in 2008, in my view, was not in “calling” all but one of the states right on Election Day. There was very little doubt about who was favored in perhaps 46 or 47 of these states. The other three or four were tossups — and whether you guessed the winner right had as much to do with luck as skill. Rather, it was what the model did in September of that year, when it detected very, very quickly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers that John McCain’s goose was cooked, with Barack Obama’s projected probability of winning the Electoral College increasing by about 25 percent in a period of just 48 hours. We’re not seeing anything quite that dramatic in the polls right now. Nevertheless, the polling movement that we have seen over the past three days represents the most substantial shift that we’ve seen in the race all year, with the polls moving toward Mr. Obama since his convention. How far will Mr. Obama’s numbers rise, and how long will his bounce last? We don’t know that, of course. But the range of possible outcomes reads pretty favorably for him.

Silver's Electoral College prediction presently shows the president just shy of a 100 point lead. I'll post that recap again on Friday.

Electoral Forecast Update

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Obama Sees Electoral Bump

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