Trump Lead Now Exceeds 2-1 Over Bush

Trump Soars In New Hampshire Poll

Trump Rides High In New NBC Poll

NBC News reports:

Donald Trump is running strong in the early nominating states of Iowa and New Hampshire, according to two new NBC News-Marist polls. Trump leads the Republican presidential field in New Hampshire, getting support from 21 percent of potential GOP primary voters. He's followed by Jeb Bush at 14 percent, Scott Walker at 12 percent and John Kasich at 7 percent. Chris Christie and Ben Carson are tied at 6 percent in the Granite State, and Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are at 5 percent each. In Iowa, Walker and Trump are in the Top 2 - with Walker at 19 percent among potential Republican caucus-goers and Trump at 17 percent. They're followed by Bush at 12 percent, Carson at 8 percent, Mike Huckabee at 7 percent and Rand Paul at 5 percent. The polls were conducted July 14-21 - so before and after Trump's controversial comments belittling John McCain's war record on July 18. And they suggest the comments didn't affect Trump in Iowa (he was at 16 percent before the comments and 18 percent after), but they did hurt him in New Hampshire (26 percent before, 14 percent after).

CNN also released a poll today:

In the first national telephone poll since Donald Trump earned rebukes from Republican leaders over his comments about Senator John McCain's military service, the real estate mogul has increased his support among GOP voters and now stands atop the race for the party's nomination. The new CNN/ORC Poll finds Trump at 18% support among Republicans, with former Florida governor Jeb Bush just behind at 15%, within the poll's margin of error. They are joined at the top of the pack by Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, with 10% support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote. Trump's backing has climbed 6 points since a late-June poll, while support for Bush and Walker has not changed significantly.

More from The Hill:

Fifty two percent of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents want the outspoken real estate magnate to stay in the race, according to a CNN/ ORC International Poll released early Sunday. Thirty three percent want him to drop out, however, and 15 percent say he should run as an independent. Trump told The Hill in an exclusive interview last week that he would consider a third-party run if RNC leaders were unfair to him during the primary process. “There's a movement going on, this is more than me,” Trump said while discussing the latest poll results Sunday morning on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “People are tired of these incompetent politicians in Washington I can't say I’m unhappy or anything, I'm just not that surprised.”

POLL: Hillary Slips In Key Swing States

The Hill reports:

Hillary Clinton trails three top Republican presidential candidates in matchups in three key swing states -- Iowa, Colorado and Virginia -- a new Quinnipiac poll finds. The Democratic presidential frontrunner is slipping in favorability ratings, as well as while facing former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-Fla.), Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Gov. Scott Walker (R-Wis.). The GOP candidates lead Clinton outright in six of those matchups, while Clinton is still behind in the other three but within the margin of error. In Iowa, Rubio and Walker both hold an 8-percentage point lead over Clinton, while Bush would defeat her in the hypothetical matchup by 6 points. In Colorado, Walker holds the largest lead over Clinton—9 percentage points. Rubio follows shortly behind with an 8-point margin, while Bush leads by 5 percentage points.

Unsurprisingly, Trump got the worst favorability score.

Trump Leads Post-McCain Attack Poll

Details.

Trump Widens Lead Over GOP Field

Via the Washington Post:

Even with the drop in support on the final night of the survey, Trump was the favorite of 24 percent of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. That is the highest percentage and biggest lead recorded by any GOP candidate this year in Post-ABC News polls and marks a sixfold increase in his support since late May, shortly before he formally joined the race. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who announced his candidacy a week ago, is in second place, at 13 percent, followed by former Florida governor Jeb Bush, at 12 percent. Walker’s support is strongest among those who describe themselves as “very conservative.” The next seven, ranging in support from 8 percent to 3 percent, are: former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.), Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.), former Texas governor Rick Perry and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

The Post notes that fallout from Trump's recent remarks about John McCain may not be fully reflected in their poll.

Marriage Support Drops Post-Obergefell

The Associated Press reports that support for same-sex marriage has dropped six points since the Obergefell ruling.

The poll was conducted July 9 to July 13, less than three weeks after the Supreme Court ruled states cannot ban same-sex marriage. According to the poll, 42 percent support same-sex marriage and 40 percent oppose it. The percentage saying they favor legal same-sex marriage in their state was down slightly from the 48 percent who said so in an April poll. In January, 44 percent were in favor. Asked specifically about the Supreme Court ruling, 39 percent said they approve and 41 percent said they disapprove.

"What the Supreme Court did is jeopardize our religious freedoms," said Michael Boehm, 61, an industrial controls engineer from the Detroit area who describes himself as a conservative-leaning independent. "You're going to see a conflict between civil law and people who want to live their lives according to their faiths," Boehm said. Boehm was among 59 percent of the poll respondents who said wedding-related businesses with religious objections should be allowed to refuse service to gay and lesbian couples. That compares with 52 percent in April.

The poll also shows that 46% believe businesses should be able to refuse same-sex couples.

Trump Leads New USA Today Poll

USA Today reports:

Donald Trump has surged to the top of a crowded Republican presidential field, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, but the brash billionaire is also the weakest competitor among the top seven GOP candidates against Democrat Hillary Clinton. In the nationwide survey, Trump leads at 17% and former Florida governor Jeb Bush is second at 14%, the only competitors who reach double digits. Trump's strengths and his weaknesses are on display. While he leads the GOP field, he fares the worst of seven hopefuls in hypothetical head-to-heads against former secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the leading Democratic nominee. Bush, the strongest candidate against Clinton, lags by four points nationwide, 46%-42%. Trump trails by 17 points, 51%-34%. That's a wider margin than Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (down 6 points), former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (8 points), Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (9 points), Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (10 points) and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (13 points).

The first debate will be very entertaining.

Trump Tops Two New GOP 2016 Polls

Via Business Insider:

Donald Trump's position on immigration does not seem to be hurting the real-estate developer's standing in the Republican presidential primary. Two new polls have him in first place among registered Republican voters. The latest poll arrived Thursday. In the Economist/YouGov poll, Trump holds 15% of the Republican vote nationally — ahead of former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida (11%). The good news for Trump doesn't stop there. A new Public Policy Polling survey of North Carolina published Wednesday also placed Trump ahead of the GOP pack. In that poll, Trump led Bush 16% to 12%. "Trump's favorability rating in North Carolina is 55/32, much higher than we were finding in national polls prior to his entry into the race," PPP director Tom Jensen said. "Trump's really caught fire with voters on the far right — 66% of 'very conservative' voters see him favorably to only 24% with a negative view of him."

USA! USA! (Tipped by JMG reader Joel)

POLL: Majority Backs SCOTUS Rulings

Via YouGov:

The opposition to legal same-sex marriage is both partisan and generational. Two-thirds of Republicans oppose same-sex marriage, as does a majority of those 65 and older. Two in three Democrats and adults under 30 are in favor. Some of the opposition is clearly religious: 57% of those who say religion is very important to them oppose the ruling (a third approve). Among Catholics, there is a close division with nearly half approving. There is more support in the Northeast and West than there is in the Midwest and South.

But same-sex marriage has already become part of the American landscape. 44% say they know a gay or lesbian married couple. More than half of those with higher incomes and half of women do, but only 29% of African-Americans say they know a gay or lesbian couple that is married. Those who know a same-sex married couple approve of the Court’s ruling by two to one. While many people know a same-sex married couple, only 7% have attended a same-sex wedding. Three times as many Democrats (11%) as Republicans (3%) and eight times as many liberals (16%) as conservatives (2%) have done so.

46% of all Americans say they'd attend a same-sex wedding.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Clinton And Bernie Sanders Effectively Tied In New CNN Poll

Via the New York Times:

The next time Hillary Rodham Clinton visits New Hampshire, she need not look over her shoulder to find Bernie Sanders; the Vermont Senator is running right alongside her in a statistical dead heat for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, according to a CNN/WMUR poll released on Thursday. The poll shows Mrs. Clinton drawing 43 percent of likely Democratic primary voters compared to 35 percent for Mr. Sanders, but with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus five percentage points, the race is a statistical tie. While Mrs. Clinton has been enormously popular in New Hampshire, her favorable ratings have dropped almost 20 points since February, while Mr. Sanders’s have been climbing. And his negatives are lower than hers. So their net favorability ratings (favorable minus unfavorable) are now equal, at 55 percent. The poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire, interviewed 1,010 voters from June 18 to 24. The margin of sampling error for the entire poll was plus or minus three percentage points, but for the 360 likely Democratic primary voters who were interviewed, it was plus or minus five percentage points.

Trump Surges In New GOP Poll

Via the Wall Street Journal:

He’s dismissed by the political professionals, but there is no denying that the appetite for Donald Trump among Republican primary voters is real. The New York developer and reality television star is second among 2016 presidential candidates in a new Suffolk University poll of New Hampshire Republicans – behind only former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. The poll of 500 likely GOP presidential primary voters found 14% back Mr. Bush. Mr. Trump is right behind at 11%. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio come next, with 8% and 7%, respectively. The poll tested 19 GOP candidates – a rare survey that included ultra-longshots like Mark Everson and former Govs. Bob Ehrlich and Jim Gilmore. While Mr. Trump is experiencing a bump in popularity after announcing the launch of his campaign last week (he filed formal Federal Elections Commission paperwork Monday), he remains the most disliked GOP candidate in the field.

Trump on the debate stage will truly be a wondrous thing.

POLL: 65% Expect Supreme Court To Rule In Favor Of Same-Sex Marriage

Via the Associated Press:

Nearly two-thirds of Americans expect the Supreme Court to legalize same-sex marriage nationwide when it rules on the issue within the next few weeks, according to a new poll. Only 25 percent expect the high court to leave existing state bans on gay marriage intact, while 65 percent expect the bans to be overturned, according to the poll conducted by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute. Its nationwide survey of 1,009 adults was conducted from June 3 to June 7. Mirroring the findings of several other recent national polls, the new survey found 55 percent of Americans in favor of allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally, and 37 percent opposed.

The survey found sharp divisions over same-sex marriage along religious lines. Majorities of religiously unaffiliated Americans (79 percent), white mainline Protestants (60 percent) and Catholics (58 percent) favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry. But gay marriage was supported by only 29 percent of white evangelical Protestants and 35 percent of nonwhite Protestants. The survey also asked about perceptions of discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity. Three-quarters of Democrats, 61 percent of independents and 50 percent of Republicans said there is a lot of discrimination against transgender people.

See more about the poll here.

WaPo 2016 Net Favorability Poll

Of all the declared and potential 2016 candidates in the Washington Post's net favorability poll, only Sen. Bernie Sanders is (barely) in positive territory.

The real-world surveys show that the overwhelming majority of presidential candidates are running negative favorability scores. Quinnipiac has Bernie Sanders at +1 overall, although that's partly because 62 percent of Americans say they haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion. The closest Republican is Marco Rubio — the same number of Americans say they view him positively as those who view him negatively, meaning his score nets out to exactly zero. Clinton and Obama are tied at -4. And it's all downhill from there, all the way down to Donald Trump. Only 15 percent of Americans view him favorably, compared to 71 percent who have a negative opinion. That gives him a net favorability of -56, more than twice as bad as the next-lowest candidate, Chris Christie, with his -26 score.

(Tipped by JMG reader Daddy Ray)

No Clear Leader In New GOP Fox Poll

The GOP's overcrowded 2016 clown car has yet to provide a breakout leader with the top six finishers all essentially tied in the latest Fox New poll. In the clip below Fox trots out in-house homocon Guy Benson for analysis.

GALLUP: Americans Continue To Greatly Overestimate Percentage Of Gays In USA

Via Gallup:

The American public estimates on average that 23% of Americans are gay or lesbian, little changed from Americans' 25% estimate in 2011, and only slightly higher than separate 2002 estimates of the gay and lesbian population. These estimates are many times higher than the 3.8% of the adult population who identified themselves as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender in Gallup Daily tracking in the first four months of this year. The stability of these estimates over time contrasts with the major shifts in Americans' attitudes about the morality and legality of gay and lesbian relations in the past two decades. Whereas 38% of Americans said gay and lesbian relations were morally acceptable in 2002, that number has risen to 63% today. And while 35% of Americans favored legalized same-sex marriage in 1999, 60% favor it today.

Only 9% of respondents estimated the LGBT population to be under 5%.

GALLUP POLL: Support For Same-Sex Marriage Hits Record High Of 60%

Via Gallup:

Sixty percent of Americans now support same-sex marriage, as the Supreme Court prepares to rule on its constitutionality next month. This is up from 55% last year and is the highest Gallup has found on the question since it was first asked in 1996. Public support for the legality of same-sex marriage first reached a majority in 2011, when 53% supported it. Since then, support has ranged from 48% to 55%. The five-percentage-point increase in this year's Values and Beliefs poll, conducted May 6-10, is the largest year-to-year climb since 2011, when support rose by nine points. Support for the legality of gay marriages in the U.S. has been a fast-changing trend. Just two decades ago, only 27% of Americans backed gay marriage, while 68% opposed. By 2005, the percentage in favor had increased by 10 points to 37%, and by 2010 it had reached 44%.

Support among Republicans has climbed seven points to 37%.

Freep This Northern Ireland Poll

Right here. (Tipped by JMG reader Nick)

Walker & Rubio Lead New GOP Poll

Via Public Policy Polling:

PPP's national Republican poll for May continues to find Scott Walker leading the field, but it's tightly clustered and his support has actually dropped two consecutive surveys now. Walker's at 18% to 13% for Marco Rubio, 12% each for Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Ted Cruz, 9% for Rand Paul, 5% for Chris Christie, and 2% for Rick Perry. Two candidates have the clear momentum in the six weeks since we did our last national Republican poll: Marco Rubio and Mike Huckabee. In addition to being second place overall, Rubio is the most frequently named second choice of GOP voters at 15%. The 28% of Republicans who name him as either their first or second choice matches Walker for the top of the heap. His 13% represents a 7 point gain from his 6% standing in late March. Huckabee's gained 6 points from the last national poll we did. His 58% favorability rating is the highest of the GOP field and his net +34 rating at 58/24 is tied with Rubio's at 56/22 to make him the most popular candidate.

The poll also shows that 32% of Republicans believe that the federal government is secretly plotting to take over Texas. Seriously.

Irish Men Voted World's Sexiest

Via Irish Central:

A round of appreciative applause and a long, slow wolf whistle, please, for Irish men – they’ve just been voted the sexiest in the world. This is according to MissTravel.com, a US-based travel and dating website. The site recently announced the results of a survey that polled “over 110,000 American singles to discover the most desired nationalities.” Out of the 66,309 women polled, 7,862 chose Irish men as the sexiest international specimens. In second place, but trailing by over 1,000 votes were Australians, followed by Pakistani men, American men and English men. Perhaps we have "Mr. Fifty Shades of Grey" himself, Northern Ireland-born Jamie Dornan, to thank for this sweeping recognition? When asked which qualities affected their decision most, 49 percent responded with “accent.” With that criterion in mind, it isn’t any wonder Irish lads raked in the votes.

American men ranked fourth. Hit the link for the list.