Main | Thursday, September 24, 2009

Could GOP Retake House In 2010?

Andrew Sullivan points us to this piece by the Kreskin of politics, Nate Silver, who says that the GOP stands a decent shot at retaking the majority in the U.S. House in 2010.
The current state of the generic polls gives the Democrats .412/(.412+.377) = 52% of the two-party vote. Going to the graph, we see, first, that 52% for the Democrats is near historic lows (comparable to 1946, 1994, and 1998) and that the expected Democratic vote--given that their party holds the White House--is around -3%, or a 53-47 popular vote win for the Republicans. Would 53% of the popular vote be enough for the Republicans to win a House majority? A quick look, based on my analysis with John Kastellec and Jamie Chandler of seats and votes in Congress, suggests yes. It's still early--and there's a lot of scatter in those scatterplots--but if the generic polls remain this close, the Republican Party looks to be in good shape in the 2010.
All the more reason to hold the Democrats' feet to the fire on LGBT rights right now.

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