Majority Oppose Prop 8

Using the same language as the amendment, a new Field Poll shows that a majority of Californians continue to oppose Proposition 8. Pollsters expect opposition to grow.

Proposition 8, the constitutional amendment that would ban same-sex marriage in California, is opposed by 51 percent of likely voters with 42 percent in favor, according to a new Field Poll. Those results put the proposed ban in a politically perilous position in the Nov. 4 election, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the nonpartisan Field Poll.

“Starting out behind is usually an ominous sign for a proposition,” DiCamillo said. “Over 90 percent of propositions that start out behind get taken down.” Typically, ballot measures start out ahead, but become less popular as the opposition campaign begins raising questions and creating doubt, he said.

Proposition 8 has attracted nationwide interest, with some analysts estimating that it will generate more than $30 million in total campaign spending. The poll is the first to question voters using the measure's exact language. But the results are similar to a Field Poll on the same topic in May, shortly after the California Supreme Court overturned laws that prohibited same-sex marriage.