Poll: Prop 8 Repeal Will Be Tough In 2010

Although activists banned the media from their post-Meet In The Middle For Equality leadership summit so that new polling data didn't "provide ammunition to opponents of same-sex marriage", the results were published by the Bay Area Reporter yesterday. According to the latest survey, which was taken the first week of May, the "movable middle" on marriage equality is quite small and a Prop 8 repeal effort made in either 2010 or 2012 will be quite the battle.

Overall, the poll shows that California is split down the middle when it comes to same-sex marriage, with 47 percent in favor and 48 opposed. Those figures mirror other statewide polls that have been done since last fall's election, suggesting that many voters' minds are made up on the issue and the percentage of persuadable voters is very small, about 5 percent, Binder said Sunday during an informal news conference after the closed session.

The poll also shows the marriage equality side doing better in 2012 than in 2010. On a series of similar questions, the poll results show more support for reinstating the right of same-sex couples to marry (46 percent yes, 49 percent no in 2012, compared to 45 percent to 51 percent in 2010), or a constitutional amendment to end California's ban on same-sex marriage (47 percent yes, 47 percent no in 2012, compared to 47 percent yes, 48 percent no in 2010). However, Binder noted that a ballot measure in either year would be close. "It's a very close race regardless of whether it's 2010 or 2012," Binder said. "People's opinions are very strong on both sides."

Read Rex Wockner's coverage of the controversy over the media ban.