Main | Monday, March 11, 2013

12 States Working On Marriage

Marriage Equality USA's Ned Flaherty makes some bold predictions today at Policy Mic:
The next 12 states where legalization is underway are known, and the order in which they're finishing is now predictable. By the end of 2014, these next 12 states will join the 10 other jurisdictions that already have full marriage equality: Connecticut, District of Columbia, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Vermont, and Washington. At that point, 45% of America's citizens will live in the 22 states where lawmakers, courts, and/or voters decided to issue same-gender civil marriage licenses.

How did the order in which states are adopting marriage equality become predictable? Each state's rank is affected by 9 key factors: neighboring states, LGBT population, current law, state constitution, voters, lawmakers, governors, litigation, and ballot questions. No single factor, by itself, guarantees success or assures failure; but when the 9 factors are analyzed together, after adjustments for legislative calendars and ballot timing, the national road map emerges.

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