Main | Tuesday, October 28, 2014

MAINE: Gov Race Polling Wildly Conflicts

Three new polls on Maine's gubernatorial race show wildly conflicting results.
A new poll has found Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) with a wide lead over the rest of the field. The new Maine Sunday Telegram/Portland Press Herald poll found LePage leading Rep. Mike Michaud, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in the race, 45 to 35 percent among likely voters. Independent candidate Eliot Cutler, meanwhile, got 16 percent with 4 percent undecided. The poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center among 639 likely voters between Oct. 15 to 21. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Then there's this new poll:
The latest poll of the Maine governor’s race by Portland-based firm Pan Atlantic SMS shows Republican Gov. Paul LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud tied at 40 percent, with independent Eliot Cutler at 13 percent. Pan Atlantic polled 400 voters between Oct. 15-21. The survey’s margin of error was 4.9 percent. The poll is similar to many others that have been released over the last several weeks, except this one seems to show a shift of support away from Cutler and toward Michaud. Pan Atlantic conducted a poll between Sept. 23-29 – prior to the start of the debates – that showed LePage at 39 percent, Michaud at 34 percent and Cutler at 20 percent. That means that, in less than a month, Michaud has gained 6 percentage points, Cutler has lost 7 and LePage has virtually stayed the same.
And this new poll:
Public Policy Polling’s newest Maine survey finds that after three televised debates, the race for governor is still a very tight contest between incumbent Paul LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud. LePage and Michaud each have 40%, with Eliot Cutler trailing at 17%. Trailing by 23 points with only 11 days to go until the election, there is virtually no way Cutler can overtake LePage and Michaud. But by splitting the anti-LePage vote, the support Cutler is pulling from Michaud could be just enough to reelect LePage in this razor-thin contest.
The final line above will be the story. If elected, Michaud would become the first out-at-election-time governor in history.

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