New Poll Shows 52% Oppose Prop 8

It's getting impossible to keep up with all the polling, but here's the latest on Prop 8 from the Public Policy Institute.

A majority of Californians still oppose a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage, but the margin is narrowing so notably that the fate of Proposition 8 may hinge on the turnout for the presidential race.

A new poll released late Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California shows Prop. 8 losing 52 to 44 percent among likely voters. That eight-point margin has narrowed from the 14-point spread that PPIC polls found in August and September. Just 4 percent of likely voters remain undecided.

"The vote on Proposition 8 could get closer between now and the election, because we know that Californians are evenly divided in general on whether they favor or oppose gay marriage," said Mark Baldassare, president and CEO of the PPIC.

Conflicting data: On Tuesday the No On 8 people held a conference call with reporters to say that their own polling shows Prop 8 ahead by four points. And yesterday the Knights of Columbus released their poll which shows Prop 8 winning by nine.