Senate Polling Map Tightens Up

With the election just four weeks from tomorrow, the Senate polling map is tightening up slightly.

The current U.S. Senate has 53 Democrats and 45 Republicans. There are two independents who caucus with the Democrats, effectively giving them control of 55 seats. The 2014 Senate elections will take place on November 4, 2014. There are 36 races, of which 33 are on a normal six-year cycle. There are special elections in Hawaii, Oklahoma and South Carolina. In the latter two states, these special elections coincide with a regular election. The 36 Senate seats are currently held by 21 Democrats and 15 Republicans. Of those 36 incumbents, five Democrats and two Republicans are retiring; an additional Republican is resigning in early 2015, at the conclusion of the 113th Congress.

More from the New York Times:

There are six truly competitive states: Kansas, Colorado, Iowa, Alaska, Louisiana and Arkansas. Modest Democratic leads seem likely to hold in Michigan, North Carolina and New Hampshire, where Leo now gives the Democrats at least an 85 percent chance of winning. The Republicans now have a similar advantage in Georgia and Kentucky. Another state, Arkansas, stands at the edge of dropping off the list of battlegrounds and into the “likely Republican” column. It’s likely that one or more of these states will become more competitive between now and November. Nonetheless, we’re at a point in the year when four- or five-point leads start to matter a lot — and trailing candidates are running out of time. The narrower list of truly competitive states means that the overall Senate picture is clearer than it has been all year. As many as 11 seats seemed competitive earlier in the year, and analysts considered unlikely but conceivable possibilities like a Republican takeover of a dozen Democratic seats. It now seems fairly unlikely that the Republicans will gain more than eight seats.