Main | Thursday, October 30, 2014

Updated Senate Race Map

It's not looking good. Via Politico:
Polling in Colorado misfired in both 2010 and 2012, and Democrats are banking on a similar mishap, along with the state’s new all-mail balloting, to deliver an upset victory for Sen. Mark Udall (D), who trails in nearly all independent polling to Rep. Cory Gardner (R). That’s possible, but there is also reason to be skeptical. For one thing, Gardner is unquestionably a superior candidate to Ken Buck, the Republican who fumbled the 2010 race against Sen. Michael Bennet (D). And some pollsters have no doubt learned from their past mistakes. Gardner’s lead in polling averages is around three points, right around where we’d expect him to be in good shape to win. So we’re now moving Colorado from Toss-up to Leans Republican. In South Dakota, ex-Gov. Mike Rounds’ (R) troubles don’t seem sufficiently large enough to open the door for Rick Weiland (D) or ex-Republican Sen. Larry Pressler, whose position in the race has faded to some degree. So we’re moving the Mount Rushmore State from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.
Hit the link for a large version of the map.

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