Poll: "Statistical Tie" On Prop 8

Despite the headline in the above graph, there has been a (very) slight improvement in the polling for Proposition 8 since we were rocked by the news two weeks ago that the Yes On 8 side was ahead.

In June, the state legalized same-sex marriages. The next month, Proposition 8, defining marriage as between a man and a woman, was put on the ballot for November. Initial polling showed that a majority of Californians were likely to vote against Proposition 8. A Sept. 18 poll by the San Francisco-based Field Poll found the measure losing 55% to 38% among likely voters.

But now the measure is favored 48% to 45% among likely voters questioned in an Oct. 17 poll by Survey USA of Verona, N.J. The poll's margin of error, four percentage points, means the results were a statistical tie. A group leading the fight against the measure, Equality for All, said this week that one of its internal polls shows Proposition 8 leading by four percentage points. The close results of that poll, too, may suggest a dead heat as the Nov. 4 election approaches.

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IMPORTANT: A poll commissioned by the Knights of Columbus, which has donated over $1M to Yes On 8, shows that we are losing by NINE points. But consider the source.